Moves That Matter

What happened

U.S. stocks fell sharply into Friday's close as fears mounted that AI profits will not arrive fast enough to cover the increasingly expensive debt funding the data-center buildout. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1% on Friday and 4.5% for the week, its worst week since late June, while the S&P 500 fell 1.1% Friday and about 2% for the week, also its worst since June. The Dow slipped 0.3% Friday but still gained about 0.7% for the week. CoreWeave, the Nvidia-backed neocloud at the center of the credit worries, plunged 12% Friday, erasing Thursday's Huang-inspired rebound and leaving it down 25% for the week. Chip and chip-equipment names led the decline, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down 3.3% Friday and over 10% for the week.

What happened

ExxonMobil said in an SEC filing Friday that changes in oil (liquids) prices will lower its third-quarter upstream earnings by $1.3 billion versus the second quarter, when upstream earnings were $7.9 billion. But the same filing showed changes in refining margins adding roughly $4.5 billion to Q3 earnings on top of $4.1 billion in Q2, plus about a $0.3 billion boost from natural gas prices — more than offsetting the upstream hit. Exxon shares rose 1.5% to $177.32 on Friday, on pace to close at a record high, after gaining 45% year-to-date through Thursday as elevated oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict lifted the energy complex. The company will report official Q3 earnings on October 30.

What happened

U.S. import prices jumped 1.1% in September, above the 0.8% economists polled by Reuters had expected, after a downwardly revised 0.5% rebound in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. In the 12 months through September, import prices rose 8.1%, the largest annual increase since July 2022, up from 6.7% in August. The increase was boosted by higher costs for energy products and a range of other goods. Reuters noted the report is further evidence of rising inflation pressures as the Middle East conflict persists.

What happened

Taiwan plans to add AI servers and cutting-edge semiconductors to its controlled-items list, making unauthorized shipment of restricted AI hardware to China a criminal offense under its Foreign Trade Act, Minister of Economic Affairs Kung Ming-hsin told Bloomberg. The measures will align Taiwan's controls with US rules under the two countries' reciprocal trade agreement, though no implementation timeline was given. Taiwan also plans to raise billions of dollars to develop US industrial parks for AI hardware supply chains, starting with a complex in Texas costing as much as $4 billion to support suppliers to Nvidia and TSMC.

What happened

Travelers reported third-quarter results Friday morning that beat expectations by a wide margin, yet the stock fell about 4% in premarket trading to roughly $368.40. Core earnings were $9.18 per share, up from $8.14 a year ago and well above the roughly $7.39 consensus. Net income was $1.92 billion ($9.04 per share) versus $1.89 billion ($8.24) a year earlier. Revenue was roughly flat at $12.41 billion, above the $11.36 billion consensus, and net written premiums were essentially flat at $11.48 billion versus $11.36 billion expected. Net investment income rose 6% to a record $1.1 billion pre-tax, but catastrophe losses net of reinsurance jumped 34% to $538 million from $402 million a year ago. The combined ratio improved to 86.8% from 87.3%, while the underlying combined ratio ticked up to 84.1% from 83.9%. CEO Alan Schnitzer said the company is well positioned to finish the year strong and expressed confidence heading into 2027.

What happened

MSCI finalized rules, announced Thursday, that make companies classified as 'non-operating' ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes. Under the methodology, companies failing a core screen on substantial operating assets face an exclusion screen of five financial ratios, and failing four or more makes a security ineligible. MSCI previously identified Strategy (MSTR) among the companies that would be deleted under the methodology. Strategy shares fell about 3% in premarket trading Friday on the news.

What happened

In a moderated conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give any forward signal on the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, saying he does not prejudge meetings and does not believe in announcing in advance what he might do at remaining meetings this year. He reiterated that the Fed will deliver price stability and described September's quarter-point hike as removing a dose of accommodation, while saying the economy since then had broadly conformed to policymakers' expectations. Markets read the absence of hawkishness as dovish: October hike odds fell from around 27% before he spoke to below 15%, with CME FedWatch cited at 13%, and S&P 500 futures erased losses of as much as 0.6% to turn positive.

What happened

Progress toward a U.S.-Mexico tariff deal has stalled after opposition from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the talks. The two sides had been closing in on a deal that would reduce U.S. levies on steel, aluminum and automobiles in return for concessions from Mexico, but progress slowed over disagreements on the American levies on vehicles and metals. Lutnick has opposed significant reductions in the 25% tariff on Mexican automobiles and the 50% levies on steel and aluminum, and objected to reductions in tariffs on finished products made of steel and aluminum. Mexico's deputy trade minister Luis Rosendo Gutierrez told the Journal there was still progress in the negotiations, while a U.S. Commerce Department spokesperson said the department was in constant dialogue with Mexico — but the WSJ report indicates the near-term deal is off the table.

What happened

Investors who attended Anthropic's investor day on Wednesday discussed valuing the company at around $1.5 trillion in its November IPO, a significant step down from the roughly $2 trillion previously expected, Reuters reported Oct 15, citing people familiar with the matter. Anthropic told prospective investors its Q3 revenue rose 45-46% sequentially to $16.8B with adjusted-basis profitability, but the sequential growth rate slowed sharply from Q2, when revenue more than doubled from $4.7B in Q1 to $11.6B. The valuation reset weighed on AI stocks again Thursday and was still dragging Nasdaq futures lower Thursday night.

What happened

Netflix named Peter Rice, former chairman of general entertainment at The Walt Disney Co. and president of 21st Century Fox, as its new chief content officer. Rice will officially take on the role Oct. 26, succeeding Bela Bajaria, who is stepping down after a nearly 10-year tenure. He will oversee all global content operations, including scripted and unscripted television, feature films, and live events. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos called Rice 'one of the most effective at-scale operators in the entertainment industry.' Netflix shares rose about 1.5% in after-hours trading on the news.

What happened

J.B. Hunt Transport Services reported third-quarter EPS of $1.82 on revenue of $3.68 billion, narrowly beating the FactSet consensus of $1.81 and $3.59 billion. Profit of $172.4 million was up slightly from $170.8 million a year earlier but down 4.7% from Q2, as operating expenses jumped to $3.43 billion from $2.81 billion. Operating margin fell about a percentage point to 6.7% on higher fuel, driver, equipment, claims, and medical costs. On the Thursday analyst call, executives said the cost pressures — which hit operating income by more than $50 million from Q2 to Q3 — will persist into Q4 and next year, and that the carrier is turning to price increases to recoup them. Shares fell 4.2% in after-hours trading after gaining 1.4% in the regular session.

What happened

Dell shares fell 8.4% to $465.14 on Thursday, the worst performance in the S&P 500 for the session, extending Wednesday's roughly 11% plunge for a two-day decline of about 19%. Dell tumbled more than 8% in afternoon trading, falling below its 50-day moving average in heavy volume and triggering a sell signal; shares had reached a profit zone from a 469.47 buy point but round-tripped that gain. Even after the two-day selloff, Dell remained up about 270% in 2026, down from a roughly 355% gain through Tuesday's close, and still on pace for its best year on record.

What happened

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels in the week ended October 9, about 3% below the five-year average — versus analyst expectations of a roughly 100,000-barrel build. U.S. crude production fell 300,000 b/d to 13.7M b/d as Hurricane Isaias shut in Gulf of Mexico output, and crude imports fell 791,000 b/d to 6.0M b/d, while refinery utilization rose to 93.5%. Gasoline inventories rose 3.5M barrels (vs an expected draw), distillate stocks fell 2.5M barrels (a larger draw than expected), and Cushing stocks rose 1.9M barrels to 26.6M. WTI for December delivery rose 2.6-2.7% to about $96.40 in early-afternoon trading, while December Brent was little changed near $106.10.

What happened

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, speaking to Bloomberg at an event in Stockholm on Thursday Oct 15, said CoreWeave does not need a financial backstop from Nvidia. 'CoreWeave's strength is improving every day,' Huang said. 'I'm optimistic. Their cost of capital is actually decreasing.' The remarks came a day after CoreWeave's stock plunged 15% and the yield on its 9.625% notes due 2032 spiked to 15% as credit markets repriced its debt risk, and after Jefferies argued Nvidia should provide financing backstops to the neocloud ecosystem. Huang's comments helped cool the AI selloff intraday: CoreWeave narrowed its Thursday decline, Oracle swung from a deep loss to a gain, and the major indexes recovered much of their early losses.

What happened

U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating the 0.3% consensus (Reuters) and the 0.4% WSJ consensus, after an upwardly revised 1.3% jump in August, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. Sales excluding autos rose 0.9%, but excluding autos and gas they rose just 0.2%. Rising gasoline prices accounted for most of the increase: gasoline prices soared 7.1% in September. Inflation-adjusted wages fell again in September, and the report noted the oil price shock is straining lower-income consumers in particular, with higher-income households doing the heavy lifting on spending.

What happened

Intuit announced it has signed an agreement to acquire Sequence, a Series A revenue management company whose AI-native platform automates the end-to-end quote-to-revenue process — contract configuration, pricing, billing, invoicing, collections, and revenue recognition. The acquisition extends Intuit's financial system of intelligence and strengthens its mid-market offerings, including Intuit Enterprise Suite and QuickBooks Online Advanced, and opens new industries such as B2B software and professional services. Financial terms were not disclosed, and no expected closing date was announced.

What happened

The U.S. producer-price index for final demand jumped 1.3% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday morning — the largest monthly advance since March 2022 and more than double the ~0.5-0.6% rise economists expected, following a 0.4% gain in August. On a 12-month basis, wholesale inflation accelerated to 6.3%, up from a revised 5.6% in August. The core PPI measure excluding food, energy and trade margins rose 0.5%, above the 0.3% forecast, indicating the heat was not just energy.

What happened

US toy prices are surging just as holiday shopping begins, hit by the combined impact of tariffs and high energy costs from the Iran war. Toy prices rose 6.6% over the last year and 4.2% from August (seasonally adjusted) in the September CPI data — a bigger gain than other consumer categories. The toy industry makes most US-sold products in China, leaving it exposed to shifting tariff policy, and toys are largely fossil-fuel-based plastics, so higher oil prices add to the sticker shock. Fitch Ratings' David Silverman said the dual tariff and energy pressures are now showing up in pricing and that the Iran conflict's impact on commodity and shipping costs 'will certainly persist for the next several quarters.'

What happened

Reuters reported, citing an unnamed U.S. official, that the Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on some vessels in the so-called shadow fleet — tankers used to transport oil and fuels from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran — in a bid to ease a deepening tanker crunch and bring down record freight rates. Shippers wanting to use a sanctioned tanker would have to apply to the U.S. Treasury Department. Oil prices fell on the news: Brent slid to about $104.39/bbl (from above $106 earlier in the week) and WTI to about $94, with Thursday's decline also reflecting signs of recovering Gulf supplies and a weaker IEA demand outlook.

What happened

Jefferies initiated coverage of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) with a Buy rating and an $85 price target, implying more than 20% upside from the last close near $70.57. Analyst John Colantuoni argued Netflix can sustain earnings growth through higher subscription prices, advertising expansion, and improving operating margins, projecting annual EPS growth above 14% over the next decade and per-member revenue growth of roughly 6%. He also expects Netflix's standard subscription — currently about 60% cheaper per viewing hour than competing U.S. services — to narrow that gap to 50% by 2029 via ~7% annual price increases, and forecasts advertising revenue growing ~35% annually.

What happened

Asian equities tumbled sharply on Thursday as the AI-driven selloff spread from Wall Street. South Korea's Kospi plunged 7.7% to 5,548.78, with Samsung Electronics down 9.5% and SK Hynix down 11.4%. The drop triggered sell-side trading curbs (sidecars) on both the Kospi and the Kosdaq — the first time both were halted on the same day in about 11 weeks — and foreign investors sold a net $1.4 billion of Korean shares. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 4.8%, with SoftBank down 9.4%, Tokyo Electron down 7.3% and Kioxia down 11.2%, while Taiwan's Taiex shed 3% and the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index dropped 3.4%, its fourth straight losing session.

What happened

TSMC reported a sixth consecutive quarter of record earnings. Q3 net profit rose about 69% year over year to NT$763.1 billion ($23.59 billion), beating the LSEG SmartEstimate of NT$746.3 billion. Revenue rose about 51% to NT$1.49 trillion ($46.72 billion). Gross margin hit 66.4%, operating margin 58.7%, and net margin 51.1%. Management guided Q4 revenue to $52.3–$54.3 billion, implying 55–61% year-over-year growth. The 2nm node contributed 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2, and advanced nodes (7nm and below) made up 79% of wafer revenue. TSMC kept 2026 capex guidance at $60–$64 billion.

What happened

Tesla finally showed off its next-generation Roadster at an outdoor livestreamed event Thursday evening near SpaceX's McGregor, Texas test site, after nearly nine years of delays. Elon Musk called it a 'better than James Bond car.' The car features air thrusters and fans using SpaceX-derived cold-gas thruster technology; during the demo it drove up a ramp, briefly hovered upside down, and jumped over a row of Teslas. Tesla demonstrated an acceleration run clocked at around 1 second 0-60 mph (timing method unclear), cited a 230-mph top speed, and said production will begin in 2028. Musk acknowledged the car was not necessarily designed with safety as the top priority. TSLA shares fell about 1.3% in Thursday's regular session before the evening event.

What happened

J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth raised his price target for Alphabet to $425 from $420 on Thursday, implying roughly 22% upside from Wednesday's close of $347.64. He now expects Google Cloud revenue to grow 100% in Q3, up from an 88% estimate, driven by sky-high demand for Google's tensor processing units (TPUs), custom chips used in data centers and to run AI large-language models. Anmuth said TPU sale inclusion was the primary driver of the increase and that he 'could still be conservative,' and he raised his 2027 Alphabet earnings forecast by 3% to $14.05 a share. In the same note he lifted his Amazon growth estimate on the OpenAI partnership and modeled $10 billion of settlement expenses for Meta.