September retail sales beat expectations, rising 0.8%, but gains driven by surging gasoline prices (Oct 15)

What happened

U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating the 0.3% consensus (Reuters) and the 0.4% WSJ consensus, after an upwardly revised 1.3% jump in August, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. Sales excluding autos rose 0.9%, but excluding autos and gas they rose just 0.2%. Rising gasoline prices accounted for most of the increase: gasoline prices soared 7.1% in September. Inflation-adjusted wages fell again in September, and the report noted the oil price shock is straining lower-income consumers in particular, with higher-income households doing the heavy lifting on spending.

Who’s affected

• Consumer discretionary / retail (XRT, TJX, AMZN, WMT): headline beat flatters the sector; ex-gas, sales rose only 0.2%, signaling a softening consumer.
• Energy / gasoline: gasoline prices up 7.1% in September drove most of the headline gain.
• Rate-sensitive growth / tech: resilient nominal spending gives the Fed more room to keep rates elevated, a headwind already pressuring AI and growth names.

Sources

reuters.comwsj.com