US toy prices surge ahead of holiday season as tariffs, Iran war bite (Reuters, Oct 15)
What happened
US toy prices are surging just as holiday shopping begins, hit by the combined impact of tariffs and high energy costs from the Iran war. Toy prices rose 6.6% over the last year and 4.2% from August (seasonally adjusted) in the September CPI data — a bigger gain than other consumer categories. The toy industry makes most US-sold products in China, leaving it exposed to shifting tariff policy, and toys are largely fossil-fuel-based plastics, so higher oil prices add to the sticker shock. Fitch Ratings' David Silverman said the dual tariff and energy pressures are now showing up in pricing and that the Iran conflict's impact on commodity and shipping costs 'will certainly persist for the next several quarters.'
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Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- Mattel (MAT) and Hasbro (HAS) — the two big US toy makers, both already reporting tariff-driven margin squeeze and higher input costs; big-box and online retailers heading into holiday season (Walmart, Target, Amazon) — face a choice between passing higher prices to cash-strapped shoppers or absorbing margin; consumer-discretionary sector broadly — toy prices are an early, visible read on tariff + energy pass-through into holiday spending. A Reuters/Ipsos poll through Oct 5 showed only 21% of voters approve of Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues.
Sources