Fed Chair Warsh declines to signal October hike in final remarks before quiet period; October hike odds collapse to 13%
What happened
In a moderated conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give any forward signal on the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, saying he does not prejudge meetings and does not believe in announcing in advance what he might do at remaining meetings this year. He reiterated that the Fed will deliver price stability and described September's quarter-point hike as removing a dose of accommodation, while saying the economy since then had broadly conformed to policymakers' expectations. Markets read the absence of hawkishness as dovish: October hike odds fell from around 27% before he spoke to below 15%, with CME FedWatch cited at 13%, and S&P 500 futures erased losses of as much as 0.6% to turn positive.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- Broad market (S&P 500, Nasdaq) — lower near-term hike odds ease pressure on equities after a volatile week; rate-sensitive growth and AI/infrastructure names that sold off on financing-cost fears
- Treasurys — 10-year yield steady near 5.08% after Thursday's drop
- U.S. dollar — edged lower as hike bets faded; banks and housing-sensitive stocks — benefit from a hold signal.