Week ahead (Oct 26-30): the Fed, four Mag 7 prints, and oil majors into $112 Brent

What happened

📅 Week ahead (Oct 26–30): the Fed, four Mag 7 prints, and oil majors into $112 Brent The season's center of gravity — roughly 44% of US index market value reports in five days, and the Fed decision lands mid-week. **1. Fed decision — Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET** - Consensus bar: hold at 3.75%–4.00%. ~87–90% market pricing; 94 of 100 economists in the Oct 16–20 Reuters poll. All 100 expect a hike in December. - Context: September brought the first hike since 2023 (+25bp, unanimous 12–0). September CPI then printed hot: 3.7% headline (+0.6% m/m), gasoline +9.1% in a month and +34.2% y/y, energy +20.4% y/y. Core 2.6% y/y. Chair Warsh gives no forward guidance — he wants "live meetings." - How to read it: hold is the base case; the market-moving part is statement and press-conference language on oil-driven inflation and the December signal. A surprise hike would be a real shock (~12% priced). A hold with hawkish December framing cements ~90% December-hike pricing. **2. Earnings: GOOGL + MSFT Wed Oct 28 (after close), AMZN + INTC Thu Oct 29 (after close)** - Options-implied moves: GOOGL ±6.3%, MSFT ±5.4%, AMZN ±7.4%, INTC ±11.1%. MSFT is +36% over three months. - What matters: the AI-capex verdict. This week gave both poles — Meta raised the low end of 2026 capex to $135–145B and guides aggressive 2027 spend; Tesla cut 2026 capex to ~$20B and tempered Optimus; NextDC crashed 44% on a power freeze; the Nvidia–Tesla substrate deal fed "circular financing" worries. Cloud growth (Azure, Google Cloud, AWS) and 2027 capex guides decide which thesis wins. - Also Thu before open: Eli Lilly (±7.4%), Mastercard (±4.1%). Tue: Visa after close (±3.8%), Boeing before open. **3. Oil majors into wartime crude — Fri Oct 30 before open: Exxon (EPS est $3.80 on $110.14B revenue), Chevron** - They print into Brent above $112 on the Hormuz tanker war and depleted Iranian floating storage. Listen for refining-margin commentary, Hormuz disruption impact, and capital-return signals. **4. Edges of the week** - Fri Oct 23: Moody's reviews France's Aa3 (spread at 165bp, widest since 2011); Anthropic expected to file its S-1 publicly; Yellow Vest march filed for Saturday in Paris. - Mon Nov 2: Apple reports after close; Tue Nov 3: AMD and the US midterms; Nov 5: French general strike.

Who’s affected

• GOOGL
• MSFT
• AMZN
• INTC
• XOM
• CVX
• V
• BA
• LLY
• MA
• META
• TSLA
• NVDA

Sources

tradestation.comreuters.comworldmarketstats.com