IEA: Diesel shortages could persist well into 2027; global oil demand to contract 2.6M bpd in 2026
What happened
In its October monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency said constrained diesel supplies could persist well into 2027, after large counter-seasonal stock drawdowns combined with restricted production ahead of peak winter demand. Diesel refining margins soared to record highs of almost $95 per barrel in September as attacks linked to the Iran war cut refining capacity. Losses of diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia totaled a combined 1.3M bpd in September. The IEA also forecast global oil demand to contract by 2.6M bpd in 2026, a quarter of it from diesel, while global oil supply falls 5.8M bpd this year before rising 7.7M bpd in 2027 back into surplus. IEA members are coordinating the release of 100M barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves to calm prices.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- Energy/oil majors and refiners (exposed to diesel cracks and product-market tightness); airlines, trucking and logistics (higher fuel costs); consumer discretionary and retail (fuel-driven cost pressure and inflation pass-through); oil prices (Brent) broadly
Sources