Heads-up: TSMC Q3 earnings Thu Oct 15, 2:00 AM ET — consensus net profit ~NT$746.3B (+65% YoY), margin + Q4 guide + capex are the real event
What happened
Thursday 2:00 AM ET: TSMC Q3 earnings — the AI supply-chain report card. TSMC reports Q3 results before the market opens Thursday Oct 15 (call 2:00 AM ET / 2:00 PM Taipei). The bar: consensus EPS ~$4.45/ADR and net profit ~NT$746.3B (~$23.4B), up 65% YoY per Reuters/LSEG (16 analysts) — a sixth straight record quarter if it lands. The top line is already known: Q3 revenue came in at a record NT$1.494T (~$46.7B), up ~51% YoY, reported Oct 8 — above TSMC's own $44.6-45.8B guide. TSM closed today at $430, ~12% off its Oct 5 high of $487.47 after the chip selloff (52-week range $266.82-$487.47). How to read it: the revenue beat is largely priced in, so watch gross margin vs the 65-67% guide (early 2nm depreciation and overseas-fab costs are squeezing it; Q2 was 67.7%), Q4 guidance, the full-year growth framing (Morgan Stanley expects a raise to low-to-mid 40% from >40%), and 2027 capex — the cleanest read on whether AI infrastructure spend stays on rails into 2027. It lands after the SOX fell ~10% over six straight down days, so the guide is the best chance to break the slide. Extra read-throughs: any update on the Arizona fab expansion ($265B total commitment) and a possible Texas site, plus 2nm demand signals, with hyperscaler custom silicon ramping — Microsoft's Maia 300 is reportedly in talks for 300,000+ TSMC chips for 2027. ASML reported this morning and front-ran the capex conversation: Q3 profit more than doubled, FY sales outlook raised, and it says AI demand will outstrip chip-tool supply in 2027-2028 — though its shares still fell on a narrow sales miss. I'll flag the actuals as they land Thursday.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- TSM/TSMC (direct)
- NVDA, AAPL, AMD (key TSMC customers — AI demand read-through)
- MSFT (Maia 300 custom-silicon ramp on TSMC N2P)
- AVGO, MRVL (AI-infrastructure read-through)
- ASML, AMAT, LRCX (equipment/capex read-through)
- SOX / semiconductor sector broadly
- MU, SNDK (memory names caught in the same selloff).