Reuters (Sep 28): Mideast crude exports rebounded in September to 12.8M bpd, highest since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February (Kpler); Saudi on track to ship ~5.4M bpd, Hormuz flows recovering to ~7.4M bpd
What happened
Crude exports from key Middle East producers — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran — rebounded in September to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters on September 28. Saudi Arabia, the region's top exporter, was on track to ship about 5.4 million bpd, up from 2.446 million bpd in August; loadings from the Gulf port of Ras Tanura jumped to about 3.6 million bpd from 929,000 bpd in August (still below February's 6.411 million bpd). Hormuz transit flows were set to hit about 7.4 million bpd, with 19 VLCCs of Saudi oil exiting the strait in one week. Regional exports were still roughly 6 million bpd below February's 18.8 million bpd, and the data exclude vessels sailing with AIS transponders switched off.
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- Global refiners (e.g. Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Phillips 66) benefit from steadier crude supply and potentially softer input costs; airlines (e.g. American, Delta, United) gain if sustained supply recovery caps jet-fuel prices. U.S. and European oil majors (e.g. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell) are on the margin-negative side if the rebound pushes crude prices lower, though volumes improve. Crude tanker operators and terminal owners tied to Hormuz transits benefit from rising traffic — 19 VLCCs carrying ~2 million barrels of Saudi oil each exited the strait in one week. Broader consumer and retail names benefit if gasoline prices ease; energy-equity funds and dividend-heavy oil stocks face headwinds on lower price expectations.