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Morgan Stanley raised the odds on its $756 Dell bull case (base $511, Equal-weight) after a deep-dive with the COO; DELL closed Friday +5.6% at $565.86

What happened

Morgan Stanley published a research note on Friday raising the probability that its $756 Dell bull-case scenario materializes within the next 12 months, following a one-on-one deep-dive with Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke at Dell's Round Rock, Texas headquarters. The firm kept its Equal-weight rating and $511 base-case price target unchanged. The bull case values Dell at $756 (18x bull-case FY2028 EPS of $42), the base case at $511 (14x FY2028 EPS of $36.47), and the bear case at $306 (12x bear-case FY2028 EPS of $25.53). DELL shares climbed 5.6% on Friday to close at $565.86.

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Who’s affected

  • DELL — the higher bull-case probability reignited buying: shares closed Friday up 5.6% at $565.86 even as the firm's base case ($511) sits ~10% below the market price. Positive read-through for the AI-server supply chain (SMCI, HPE, memory/component suppliers) and a supportive data point for Nvidia-centric AI-capex names, since Dell's argument is that AI demand is expanding the whole infrastructure TAM.
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