Heads-up: October PPI Fri Nov 13, 8:30 AM ET — bar +0.4% m/m headline, +0.3% core, after hot CPI
What happened
⏰ Heads-up: October PPI tomorrow, Friday Nov 13, 8:30 AM ET — the second inflation test of the week. CPI context: Tuesday's October CPI ran hot — headline +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected, core +0.3% vs +0.2% expected, the third straight month at 0.3% core. That lands exactly on the line Fed Governor Waller drew on Nov 10: core CPI of 0.3% or more puts a 50bp December hike on the table. A December hike is now priced above 95% (CME FedWatch had ~85% on 25bp / ~15% on 50bp after the print). So PPI is the last chance to reopen the stand-pat case before the Dec 8-9 FOMC — a soft print won't undo the hike, but it can take 50bp off the table; a hot one keeps it live. The bar (Dow Jones survey): headline final demand +0.4% m/m, core (ex food & energy) +0.3%, final demand ex food/energy/trade +0.3%. Goldman is a touch softer: +0.3% headline, +0.2% core. September's actuals for reference: headline +1.3% m/m — the biggest monthly jump since March 2022, vs +0.6% expected — core +0.7%. Energy drove more than 40% of September's headline gain. One quirk — and it's the opposite of CPI: PPI WILL carry an official year-over-year figure. The October 2025 PPI was published, delayed, in BLS's January 14, 2026 release (final demand +0.1% m/m that month), so the 12-month base exists. The consensus y/y is ~6.6% (WSJ/Dow Jones survey), up from September's 6.3% headline / 5.0% core. The soft October 2025 base (+0.1%) flatters the year-over-year comparison. Why it matters: banks have gone more hawkish since CPI. Goldman dropped its one-and-done call and added a March 2027 hike (peak 4.25-4.5%). Deutsche Bank on Nov 11-12 went further — three straight hikes, Dec, Jan and Mar, to 4.50-4.75%, the most hawkish major-bank path yet. PPI is producer prices, not consumer prices — not every component passes through to CPI — so read it as upstream cost pressure and margin strain, not a second CPI. But a hot core PPI feeds straight into the 50bp debate and the 2027 path. How to read it: • Hot (headline ≥+0.6%, core ≥+0.4%) → confirmation after hot CPI: 50bp stays live, yields higher, growth/tech pressured; Deutsche Bank's three-hike path gains credibility. • In line (+0.4% headline / +0.3% core) → hike locked in at 25bp, 50bp fades; market focus shifts to the 2027 path. • Soft (headline ≤+0.2%, core ≤+0.2%) → takes 50bp off the table, relief for rate-sensitive names — but it doesn't reopen stand-pat; the hike is priced. • Watch the split: services margins (trade services) vs goods, and whether any surprise is broad-based or one volatile category (energy drove September). A services-driven core surprise matters more for the Fed than an energy-driven headline beat. The hourly watch will flag the actuals as they land Friday morning.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- Broad market (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow — rate-path repricing); rate-sensitive growth/tech
- Treasury market (2-year yield jumped 15bp+ after hot CPI); banks/financials; consumer discretionary (margin strain if upstream costs stay hot); energy (energy drove 40%+ of September's headline PPI gain).