Moves That Matter

What happened

The White House published a fact sheet late Friday detailing the deliverables from President Trump's three-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping (September 23-25 in Washington): the two sides agreed to reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion of non-sensitive goods traded in each direction — US exports including agricultural goods, fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics and medical devices, and Chinese goods including small appliances, toys, holiday decorations, and children's car seats. China committed to importing at least 10 million metric tons of US coal in 2027 and again in 2028. The two countries established a US-China 'Super Intelligence' Dialogue (using 'super intelligence' in place of 'artificial intelligence') with the next exchange in November, plus a separate AI incident-notification channel, a US-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, an investment council, an agriculture working group, and military crisis-communication steps. China also noted new export controls on two fentanyl precursor chemicals and 21 August arrests tied to precursor trafficking. Trump confirmed two more meetings with Xi: November in China and the December G20 in Miami.

What happened

Morgan Stanley published a research note on Friday raising the probability that its $756 Dell bull-case scenario materializes within the next 12 months, following a one-on-one deep-dive with Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke at Dell's Round Rock, Texas headquarters. The firm kept its Equal-weight rating and $511 base-case price target unchanged. The bull case values Dell at $756 (18x bull-case FY2028 EPS of $42), the base case at $511 (14x FY2028 EPS of $36.47), and the bear case at $306 (12x bear-case FY2028 EPS of $25.53). DELL shares climbed 5.6% on Friday to close at $565.86.

What happened

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, September 24 that MGM Resorts International is discussing making a bid to purchase Barry Diller's People Inc. (PPLI), reversing the roles from a months-long takeover dance in which People Inc. had tried to buy MGM. The report came a day after People withdrew its June proposal to take MGM private. People Inc. — which owns People magazine, Food & Wine, Southern Living, Investopedia, The Daily Beast and other media brands — holds a ~27% stake in MGM worth roughly as much as its own market cap. MGM could make its proposal in the coming days, though the report noted the talks could still fall apart. MGM did not respond to comment requests; People declined to comment.

What happened

Johnson & Johnson reported five-year follow-up data from the initial 20-patient Cohort A subgroup of the Phase 2 CARTITUDE-2 study, presented as Abstract PA-288 at the 2026 International Myeloma Society Annual Meeting. At a median follow-up of 60.7 months, half of the patients (10 of 20) with early-line relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma remained alive and progression-free at five years after a single CARVYKTI (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) infusion with no maintenance therapy. The five-year overall survival rate was 69.2% and median progression-free survival was 60.5 months.

What happened

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on September 25, said Iran had formally delivered a seven-day plan to the US via Qatari mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks. Under the proposal, Washington must accept Iran's conditions — lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releasing frozen Iranian assets estimated above $12 billion, and observing a ceasefire that includes Lebanon — after which the US-side steps take 4-5 days, the strait reopens on day six, and US-Iran talks on a final nuclear deal begin on day seven.

What happened

Dell Technologies director Lynn Vojvodich Radakovich sold 2,022 shares on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, at an average price of $565.28, for total proceeds of $1,142,996.16, disclosed in an SEC filing. Following the sale she directly owned 25,267 shares (~$14.28M), a 7.41% reduction in her position. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

What happened

Costco reported fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close on September 24 (the 16 weeks ended August 30, 2026): diluted EPS of $6.75, ahead of the ~$6.52 consensus, and total revenue of $95.72 billion, up 11.1% and ahead of the ~$94.8B consensus. However, $0.15 of the EPS figure was a non-recurring benefit from tariff refunds under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — removing it leaves $6.60, only about $0.07 above consensus. Net sales rose 11.2% to $93.9B, membership fees rose 7.3% to $1.85B (notably slower than recent quarters), comparable sales rose 9.4% — or 6.7% excluding gasoline and currency — and digitally enabled comps jumped 19.5%. Shares traded roughly flat after hours.

What happened

Akamai Technologies announced on September 25, 2026 that it will supply Anthropic with $11.6 billion of Akamai Cloud capacity over seven years, focused on CPU workloads for AI at scale. The commitment could expand by up to another $9 billion, bringing the total potential value to about $20 billion. As part of the agreement, Akamai issued Anthropic a warrant for non-voting convertible preferred stock equal to 7.7 million common shares — up to roughly 5% of Akamai's common stock outstanding — at an exercise price of $111.33 per share, with about 2% vesting on the $11.6B commitment and the rest vesting in ~1% increments per additional $3 billion.

What happened

On Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026, Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased path toward ending the nearly seven-month war, with core terms being Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its economic/naval blockade of Iran. US equity benchmarks jumped sharply in short-term midday trading on the reports, while crude fell — WTI slid from near $96.76 to $93.62 and gains narrowed to ~1.5–1.6% (~$93.65 WTI, ~$104.67 Brent). The rebound proved short-lived: by the close, the Dow fell 0.31% to 51,350.61, the Nasdaq 0.26% to 26,866.18, and the S&P 500 0.10% to 7,698.49, with oil-related ETFs (USO up ~3%, UCO up ~2%) reflecting residual energy-price anxiety.

What happened

On Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (an FOMC voter) said inflation 'remains stubbornly elevated' and that 'some modest further tightening may be warranted' if conditions evolve as expected, calling the return to 2% inflation 'a top priority.' The same day, the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims of 197,000 for the week ended Sept. 19 — below the 201,000 consensus forecast and near 57-year lows. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.163–5.18% on Sept. 24, its highest since 2007, while the 30-year hit its highest since 2004. Markets priced roughly a 70–73% probability of a 25-bp hike at the Oct. 27–28 FOMC meeting, within the headline's 64–75% range.

What happened

On Sept. 24, 2026, Bloomberg reported that Oracle had sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, its massive AI data center campus in Doña Ana County, New Mexico (near Santa Teresa, ~1,400 acres, designed for 2.45 gigawatts). The notice — sent to Stack Infrastructure, a unit of Blue Owl Capital — seeks to preserve Oracle's right to defer rent payments for up to three years if the campus misses its planned 2028 opening (specifically a March 2028 target). Oracle shares fell about 4.4% to ~$138.15–$139.54 on Sept. 24 (volume 37.1 million shares, 1.23× average), more than $100 below the stock's 2026 peak of ~$248 in early June. Oracle said 'Project Jupiter remains on our planned schedule' and that such notices are 'commonplace in developments of this scale'; Blue Owl said the notice does not change financial commitments to the project.

What happened

Shares of MGM Resorts International slid roughly 10–11% on Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 after Barry Diller's People Inc (formerly IAC) withdrew its more than $18 billion proposal to acquire all remaining MGM shares it did not already own. MGM fell to about $33.90–$34.40 in premarket/early trading — its lowest in seven months — wiping out all gains made since the bid was announced in June, when the stock had surged ~16% to an 18-year high of $51.59. People Inc already owns ~27% of MGM (66.8 million shares) and had offered $48.30 per share in cash; it declined to give a specific reason for the withdrawal, with Diller saying, 'We didn't feel the mix was coming together in the way we had hoped.'

What happened

INTU fell 1.9% to $286.80 on Sept. 23, 2026 (market cap ~$78.45B) amid a stark analyst split. On Sept. 24, Goldman Sachs (analyst Gabriela Borges) reiterated a Sell rating with a $304 target, citing limited visibility into newer growth areas and pressure in the tax business. Mizuho reiterated an Outperform with a $430 target (per MarketBeat), against a consensus Hold with an average target of $431.55. The stock was down ~22% over the month and 56% YTD as of Sept. 24; the 52-week range was $252.84–$703.96.

What happened

Darden Restaurants reported Q1 FY2027 results on Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026: adjusted EPS of $2.05, meeting the $2.05 consensus (up 4.1% YoY from $1.97), and revenue of $3.20 billion (up 5.1% YoY) versus a $3.21 billion consensus — a slight miss. Reported net income fell 9.5% YoY to $233.4M from $258M as higher food and labor costs pressured profits. Management reaffirmed FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $11.10–$11.35 (near the $11.28 consensus). Same-restaurant sales rose ~3.1–3.2% overall; LongHorn posted ~6.2–6.8% comps while Olive Garden managed only ~1–1.1%. The stock slipped after the report (down ~1.5–2%).

What happened

Barron's reported that four top Dell executives sold roughly $31.7 million in Dell stock during September 2026. CFO David Kennedy unloaded 23,896 shares for ~$13.5 million on Sept. 17 at $584.73–$586.08 per share; General Counsel Richard Rothberg sold 4,000 shares for $2.3 million the same day at $583.36 each. Earlier, on Sept. 4, CHRO Jennifer Saavedra sold 25,251 shares at $520 each (~$13.1M) and CMO Geraldine Tunnell sold 5,436 shares at $523.52 each (~$2.8M). The sales represent less than 1% of Dell's more than 315 million shares outstanding. Dell declined to comment to Barron's.

What happened

On Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced via an @SecScottBessent post on X that the US and China agreed to extend their bilateral trade truce two months, through Jan. 10, after an unscheduled meeting in Washington with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The announcement came as Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington for a three-day state visit (Sep 23–25) — his first US state visit in 11 years, greeted by Trump and Melania with a 100-foot red carpet at Joint Base Andrews (first foreign-leader Andrews welcome since Obama greeted Pope Francis in 2015), a National Archives tour, pandas offered to Atlanta, and a 145-guest state dinner. Trump said only 'Good meeting. Great meeting, thank you' after Thursday's bilateral.

What happened

On Thursday, Sep 24, 2026, NY Fed President John Williams told the London Macro Policy Forum that 'it's likely that another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year. That seems to me a reasonable way of thinking about it,' calling inflation the 'big challenge' and saying the Fed has 'a lot of work to do.' Futures immediately repriced: the CME FedWatch-implied probability of a 25-bp October hike jumped to ~77.5% from ~53% a day earlier (Barron's/Dow Jones cited 75%, up from 71% Wednesday and 55% a week ago), with odds of two more hikes by year-end rising to 58% from 42%. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.446–5.447% — its highest since 2004 — and the 10-year reached 5.145%, its highest since 2007.

What happened

Following CEO Mark Zuckerberg's keynote on the night of Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026 at Meta's annual Connect developer conference in Menlo Park, CA, Meta shares were down about 2% ahead of the opening bell on Thursday, Sep 24, after rallying in the days leading up to the event. Zuckerberg unveiled new smart-glass models — including an audio-only Ray-Ban Meta Audio ($349, shipping Oct 13, the first camera-free pair) and the third-generation Ray-Ban Meta ($449, on sale now) — plus the $1,299.99 Meta VR Glasses (spring 2027, ~100g frames with a tethered compute puck, 5K Infinite Display) and the Muse Charm, a palm-sized/keychain AI pendant for the Muse personal AI agent shipping for the holidays. He also announced an FDA-cleared hearing-enhancement feature for the glasses and said Muse would evolve into 'personal superintelligence' used by billions.

What happened

On Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026, crude prices rose for the first time in six trading sessions. November WTI closed at $92.16/bbl, up $1.64 (+1.81%), and November Brent closed at $103.08/bbl, up $3.83 (+3.86%) — the Brent settle reclaiming $100 after one day below; intraday highs touched roughly $104.80 Brent and $93.35 WTI. Two drivers were cited: stalling US-Iran diplomacy after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's UN General Assembly speech reversed expectations for a diplomatic solution — he refused to yield to Trump's threats and called it unacceptable that Iran is denied shipping access to the Strait of Hormuz — and a Politico report, citing five sources, that the Trump administration is preparing a 90-day diesel export ban to lower energy prices ahead of the midterm elections. EIA data that day showed US crude inventories rose 2.969M bbl (vs. an expected ~600k-bbl draw) while gasoline inventories fell 1.686M bbl.

What happened

Gold futures fell $150.80, or 3.5%, to $4,135.40 a troy ounce on Monday - their biggest single-day decline since June - and have now fallen in five of the past six sessions. Silver dropped roughly 4.8%, and US-listed precious-metal miners were among the day's top decliners: Gold Fields slid 16% in premarket trading while Harmony Gold and Endeavour Silver lost 5% and 6%, respectively. The rout was driven by a strengthening dollar (DXY near a two-month high at ~101.20) and the deepening Treasury selloff: the 10-year yield ended at 5.241%, its highest close since June 2007, and the 30-year hit 5.561%, its highest since 2002.