Heads-up: October CPI lands Tue Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET — consensus headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.2% m/m, no year-over-year figure
What happened
October CPI released Tuesday Nov 10 at 8:30 AM ET (BLS schedule confirmed). Consensus (Dow Jones survey, firmed Monday; Bloomberg survey agrees): headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.2% m/m — a clear cooldown from September's +0.6% / +0.3%, but still running hot vs the Fed's 2% target. There will be no year-over-year number: BLS will not publish a 12-month change for headline or core because October 2025 prices were never collected during the 2025 shutdown. Cleveland Fed nowcast (Nov 6) is a touch softer at headline 0.24% / core 0.21%; RBC expects 0.3% on both, citing energy spillover into core. How to read it: core m/m is the number — headline is noise-prone after September's 9.1% gasoline jump. Watch shelter and services for persistence, and whether energy spillover shows up in core. The tension is rates vs growth: a hot print argues for the hike but also for slower growth, so rate-sensitive names and Treasuries take the hit first; a soft print is the relief valve for the AI-led selloff.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- Broad market (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100); rate-sensitive sectors; Treasury yields and USD; banks on the curve read