Moves That Matter

What happened

On Tesla's Q3 2026 earnings call Wednesday evening, CFO Vaibhav Taneja said Tesla is revising its full-year 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to approximately $20 billion, down from the more than $25 billion it had previously projected, 'as a result of managing our capital deployment efficiently.' He added that Tesla has secured up to $30 billion in new borrowing facilities to support expected growth in capex but 'does not plan to make any draws under any of the new facilities in this calendar year.' Separately, Elon Musk tempered expectations for the Optimus humanoid robot: reaching an annualized run rate of 20,000 units a week (roughly a million units a year) will take 'probably at least a year, maybe a little longer,' with key design issues to be solved 'around the end of next year' — the timeframe for delivering robots to external customers. Shares, which had risen about 2% immediately after the earnings release, reversed during the call and were trading roughly 4% lower. The stock had closed Wednesday's session up 3.4% at $386.47.

What happened

The New York Times reported Wednesday that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections: a short but intensive operation targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, missile and drone arsenals, and energy infrastructure — though some officials said refineries and oil infrastructure would be avoided to limit gasoline-price rises. The two militaries have stepped up exercises, including practice strike flights over Iraq. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes. Separately, Axios reported dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets flew an operational sortie Monday about 1,300 km from Israel, near Iran's border. The U.S. buildup — three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special-operations units — is expected to be fully in place by early November.

What happened

Anthropic is set to publicly file its S-1 registration statement with the SEC as soon as Friday, Oct. 23, according to three people familiar with the plans cited by Yahoo Finance. Anthropic filed confidentially on June 1, and SEC rules require the materials to be public 15 calendar days before a roadshow — so a Friday filing would clear the last procedural hurdle toward a roadshow starting the week of Nov. 9 and a November listing on Nasdaq, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan leading. The offering would exceed SpaceX's June listing as the largest IPO in history, with Wall Street expecting a raise of up to $100 billion at around a $2 trillion valuation — though Reuters reports some investors now weigh closer to $1.5 trillion after the WSJ disclosed an $80.7 billion first-half net loss and $600B+ in compute commitments.

What happened

The State Department formally ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government employees and their family members from Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, citing escalating Houthi attacks on civilian targets. Spokesman Tommy Pigott said the order applies to 'Saudi Arabia only,' publicly calling Reuters' report of ordered departures across Gulf embassies 'inaccurate' — though four U.S. officials told Reuters that other Gulf missions would also order family members out, and AFP reported families at UAE, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain missions had been told to leave. After the order was issued, Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority reported a Houthi attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam that killed one person and injured eight. Earlier Wednesday, the Energy Ministry said debris from a drone — intercepted while targeting a facility at Aramco's Shaybah oilfield — killed two people and injured two; the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed five drones early Wednesday, including over Madinah and the Eastern Province. The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh issued a security alert warning of possible further Houthi attacks, and the State Department warned hostilities 'have the potential to escalate rapidly, including beyond that immediate area.'

What happened

Details from Tesla's Q3 2026 earnings call disclosed that xAI purchased $269 million of Tesla Megapacks in 2026, and that Tesla's storage demand is at its 'highest-ever order rate and backlog,' driven by data centers. CFO Vaibhav Taneja said the Q3 energy gross margin jump to 33.1% came 'primarily' from tariff refunds and warranty true-downs from a vendor reimbursement agreement. Elon Musk said Tesla is 'almost sold out of all Megapacks for 2027' and expects margins on them 'to increase meaningfully.'

What happened

Texas Instruments reported Q3 2026 revenue of $6.06 billion, up 28% year over year and ahead of the ~$5.94 billion consensus. Earnings per share came in at $2.62, beating consensus estimates around $2.40-$2.44. CEO Haviv Ilan cited continued broad-based growth across industrial, automotive, and data-center end markets. For Q4, TI guided revenue of $5.80-$6.30 billion and EPS of $2.45-$2.79, both above Wall Street's consensus of $5.76 billion revenue and $2.31 EPS. Shares slipped about 0.5% to $283.10 in after-hours trading.

What happened

Lam Research guided to adjusted earnings of $2.33 per share on revenue of $8.60 billion, both above consensus estimates of $2.31 and $8.53 billion. Despite the beat-and-raise setup, the stock dropped more than 5% in after-hours trading. The selloff suggests investors wanted a bigger upside surprise or see signs of a demand peak in wafer-fab equipment spending.

What happened

IBM reported Q3 adjusted earnings of $2.95 per share, beating the $2.86 consensus, on solid revenue. Management raised its full-year 2026 free-cash-flow outlook by more than $1 billion over the prior year. But the stock reversed earlier gains and fell about 4.5% in after-hours trading: gross margins narrowed from last year, and IBM merely maintained its constant-currency revenue growth guidance of 4%-5% rather than raising it, disappointing a market where 'beats aren't enough' without raised outlooks.

What happened

Thermo Fisher Scientific reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $6.68, beating the $6.40 consensus by $0.28, on revenue of $12.14 billion (+9% YoY, 6% organic) versus $11.95 billion expected. Adjusted operating margin expanded 120 basis points to 24.5%, with growth led by Pharma Services, clinical research, electron microscopy and improving biotech demand. The company raised its full-year 2026 outlook: revenue $47.7-48.2 billion, organic growth 4%, adjusted EPS $25.13-25.43, and free cash flow $7.0-7.5 billion. However, the quarter benefited from approximately $60 million of net tariff-refund recovery contributing $0.15 to adjusted EPS — a largely one-time benefit that the company partly reinvested in AI deployment, Pharma Services capacity and employee investments. Fourth-quarter organic growth guidance holds at 4% after some Pharma Services activity shifted into Q3. The market reaction was muted: commentary notes the stock 'shrugged off' the beat given the rich multiple and the non-recurring lift.

What happened

Tesla reported Q3 2026 revenue of $28.05 billion, roughly flat year over year and about in line with consensus (~$27.9-28.3B), while non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 beat estimates ($0.43-0.45), though down 4% YoY. GAAP operating income plunged 56% to $718 million (2.6% margin) as operating expenses surged 39% to $4.78 billion on AI/superintelligence R&D, stock compensation and SG&A. Automotive revenue fell 3% to $20.56B on 486,532 deliveries (-2% YoY), but automotive gross margin improved to 18.5% GAAP (18.1% ex-credits, up from 15.4% a year ago), and services revenue jumped 33% to $4.61B. Energy generation and storage revenue fell 16% to $2.88B, which Tesla attributed in part to tariff-related customer refunds, even as storage deployments grew 10% to 13.7 GWh and order intake hit record highs. FSD (Supervised) attach exceeded 75% of North American deliveries with 1.74M active subscriptions (+67% YoY); Tesla delivered its 10 millionth vehicle, ended with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years, put Cybercab into the Austin Robotaxi fleet, began Optimus production in Fremont and Semi production in Nevada. Free cash flow was $1.53B and cash rose to $45.4B.

What happened

Meta Platforms reported Q3 2026 revenue of $64.6 billion, up 26% year over year and ahead of the ~$63.2-63.4 billion consensus, with advertising revenue up 26% ($63.06B) on 10% higher impressions and 14% higher ad prices. GAAP net income was $9.86 billion, up 264% YoY, but diluted EPS of $3.83 missed consensus ($4.98-6.54) because the quarter absorbed a $9.89 billion charge from the multistate social-media-harm settlement; excluding it, EPS would have been $7.40. Meta also announced it will create publicly listed, non-voting Class C common stock, issued as a dividend to common and supervoting holders — an effective 2-for-1 stock split effective January 19, 2027 that preserves Zuckerberg's voting control while raising capital for AI. Q4 revenue guidance of $73-76 billion came with the high end above analyst expectations, 2026 capex was narrowed to $135-145B (low end raised from $130B), and free cash flow went negative (-$2.1B) for the first time in Meta's history, though better than the -$9.4B analysts feared. Shares rose 2.9-4% in after-hours trading.

What happened

United Airlines (UAL) reported third-quarter earnings of $2.54 per share on revenue of $18 billion for its third quarter, per Investor's Business Daily. Earnings missed Wall Street's target by 3 cents while sales were in line with estimates, as soaring fuel prices hurt profits during the quarter. The carrier's profit outlook for the current quarter came in at $1 per share at the midpoint, well below analyst targets of $1.64. Despite the miss and the soft guide, United shares got off to a poor start in early trade but then reversed and jumped nearly 4% as the price of oil receded during the session. The stock remained below its 50-day moving average.

What happened

Three U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday that the State Department is preparing to issue an ordered departure of some personnel and family members from U.S. embassies across the Persian Gulf region. Two of the officials said the move is driven by the possible resumption of hostilities, particularly with Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen. The headline hit during Wednesday's afternoon session and immediately took the edge off a strong rally: the Nasdaq trimmed its gain from as much as 1.3% to about 0.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield turned higher, rising 3 basis points to 5.14%, according to MarketWatch. 'The Gulf situation clearly is not a market-friendly story,' said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

What happened

SpaceX shares soared nearly 10% to ~$161.96 in early Wednesday trading after Wall Street gushed over the company's Tuesday-evening Q3 report and its first-ever forward guidance. The company guided first-quarter 2027 revenue of $33-37B, demolishing the ~$22B Wall Street consensus. One analyst raised its price target 108% to $500. CEO Elon Musk said AI demand and pricing are stronger than expected, claiming the company could 'rent out our compute several times over' and faces a long-lasting shortage of 'Super Intelligence compute.'

What happened

Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded Netflix to Hold from Buy, one of the harsher calls in the post-earnings price-target wave. Martin said it could take two years for Netflix to improve its content slate and lift viewer engagement, called the company's advertising revenues a continued disappointment, and said Netflix's 'strategic position is deteriorating' compared with Alphabet's YouTube, Disney and Skydance. Rosenblatt reiterated Neutral (target cut to $71 from $75); Piper Sandler kept Overweight but trimmed to $78 from $85. At least 17 Wall Street analysts have now cut targets since the Q3 report.

What happened

Hedge-fund billionaire Ken Griffin sounded a cautionary note Wednesday, warning there are 'almost certainly bubbles' within the broader AI rally, per the Wall Street Journal's live market coverage. The warning landed on the same day the AI trade got a big boost: SpaceX shares surged ~10% on blowout guidance, and chip stocks advanced after bullish comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during a Berlin keynote, helping lift the Nasdaq.

What happened

U.S. Treasury yields were flat Wednesday, but French benchmark bond yields crossed 5% for the first time in 24 years as concern mounts about the country's fiscal and political woes, per WSJ's market coverage. Reuters reported the French 10-year OAT at 4.94% this morning — up 2.7bp — with the spread over German bunds at 153.1bp. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said the government would reinforce police with a 'massive' troop deployment to quell protests planned for Saturday.

What happened

Australian data-center operator NextDC shed nearly half its market capitalization on Wednesday after sharply cutting its forward forecasts and putting future expansion on hold. Delays to electricity network upgrades (by Jemena Electricity Networks) at its major Melbourne M3 facility mean about A$140 million ($98 million) of contracted customer revenue will be deferred this financial year, with the next capacity increase now expected only in 2028. NextDC cut its 2027 net revenue outlook to A$475-$500 million from A$615-$640 million, cut 2027 underlying EBITDA guidance to A$245-$265 million from A$385-$410 million (both excluding the affected M3 contracts), shelved all new development projects and land acquisitions 'for the foreseeable future,' and said it will evaluate capital recycling including potential site sales. The stock closed down 41.7% — its worst session since listing in 2010 — and its lowest since January 18.

What happened

One day after Netflix's weak Q4 guide and ad-forecast cut sent the stock down 5-6% after hours, Deutsche Bank broke from the analyst pile-on with a Wednesday note calling the market's reaction 'overly punitive' and framing the dip as a buying opportunity. The bank argued the shortfall is 'unrelated to the core concerns many investors have about the business (i.e. declines in US time spent and a less successful content slate)' and is an operational delay in the ad rollout 'rather than a change in the fundamental trajectory of advertising revenue growth.' The bullish note landed alongside continued target cuts: Rosenblatt reiterated Neutral and cut its price target to $71 from $75, saying it sees 'no clear argument for a much higher sustained growth pace,' while Piper Sandler kept its Overweight/buy rating but trimmed to $78 from $85. The post-print price-target wave has now reached at least 17 brokerages.

What happened

Danaher Corporation reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 21: revenue rose 8.5% year over year to $6.55 billion (in line with estimates), and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS came in at $2.11, up 11.5% and well above the $1.91 average Wall Street estimate (a 9.9% beat per Zacks). The company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $8.57-$8.62 from $8.45-$8.60, and said it expects 4%-5% core revenue growth (ex-respiratory) in the fourth quarter. Diagnostics sales jumped 17% on the Masimo acquisition, Biotechnology adjusted operating margin expanded 460 bps to 41.8%, and operating cash flow rose to $1.9 billion. Despite the beat and raise, Danaher shares traded lower before the open.

What happened

At least 17 Wall Street analysts cut their Netflix price targets after Tuesday's Q3 report, up from 14 this morning. Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded Netflix to Hold from Buy, saying it could take two years for Netflix to improve its content slate and viewer engagement and calling its advertising revenues persistently disappointing; she said Netflix's 'strategic position is deteriorating' versus YouTube, Disney and Skydance. Rosenblatt reiterated Neutral and cut its target to 71 from 75, and Piper Sandler trimmed to 78 from 85 while keeping Overweight. In morning trading Wednesday, Netflix sank more than 4% to 65.46, touching 64.10 — its lowest level in more than two years and the biggest decliner in the Nasdaq. Deutsche Bank pushed back in a client note, calling the selloff 'overly punitive' and an opportunity to 'buy the dip' as an operational delay rather than a fundamental advertising-trajectory change.

What happened

The Trump administration will offer to loan up to nearly a third of the 1-million-barrel Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, the Department of Energy said Wednesday, first reported by Reuters. The move targets diesel prices that have hit records above $6.50 per gallon on disruptions across the Middle East from the Iran war, with diesel and heating oil sharing the same refining stream. There will be a competitive bidding process for the loans for fuel retailers and terminal holders to direct fuel into areas facing shortages, and the DOE will evaluate whether further releases are necessary.

What happened

Philip Morris International reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.36 (vs. ~$2.30 expected) on revenue of $11.4 billion (up 5.5%, above the $11.32 billion consensus), with strong cigarette demand in Turkey and Indonesia and Zyn pouch shipments up 4.2% to 3.2 billion units in the U.S. But management said global conflicts are starting to hurt: the Middle East war's energy-related inflation is having an 'increasing effect' on its cost base, expected to intensify in Q4, and weapons strikes in Ukraine have disrupted its supply-chain and logistics infrastructure, with the company expecting continued pressure on operating income this year. 'The long-term situation remains unpredictable, and it is difficult to assess the broader implications for consumers or the global cost environment,' the company said. It tweaked full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.29–$8.44 (from $8.26–$8.41), with analysts at $8.36 per FactSet. Shares were down about 1–3% in premarket trading.

What happened

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced Vera Rubin DSX Pods — data centers designed to be deployed in days rather than months. NVDA shares rose 1.9% in premarket trading Wednesday following the announcement, part of a broader AI-tied rebound with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up 2% and the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) up 3.5%.

What happened

Intuitive Surgical reported third-quarter results that topped analysts' estimates, but the surgical robot maker also disclosed a $450 million antitrust settlement and narrowed its procedure-growth outlook. Shares tumbled 6.5% in premarket trading Wednesday.