ExxonMobil and Chevron both beat Q3 estimates on war-driven refining surge; Exxon now earns more from refining than upstream
What happened
ExxonMobil and Chevron both beat analyst expectations for quarterly profit Friday, as soaring refining margins made their fuel-making businesses rival their upstream segments. Exxon reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.23 (topping the ~$4.12 consensus), net income more than doubled to $3.72/share, and revenue of $113.16B (+33% y/y) — also beating estimates. It raised the quarterly dividend to $1.07, repurchased aggressively (debt cut by $8B in Q3), and set a $20B 2027 buyback plan. Chevron earned $9.9B ($5.06/share GAAP; $5.28 adjusted) as revenue surged 36% to $67.8B, easily topping estimates. Both ran U.S. refineries near full rates (Exxon's Gulf Coast at 100%), profiting from margins inflated by the wars with Iran and Ukraine, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and refinery attacks in Saudi Arabia and Russia. Chevron's results include one month of Venezuelan production; it plans $7B of Venezuelan investment over five years and signed deals cutting Bakken midstream costs ~50%. Exxon pledged more refinery investment (Baytown, Texas) plus ~100K bbl/day of additional distillate capacity.
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Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- ExxonMobil (XOM) — Q3 adjusted EPS $4.23 vs ~$4.12 consensus, revenue $113.16B (+33% y/y); raised quarterly dividend to $1.07 and set a $20B 2027 buyback; shares +2% premarket. For the first time in at least six years, Exxon is earning more from refining than from upstream, with Gulf Coast refineries running at 100% utilization. Chevron (CVX) — Q3 adjusted EPS $5.28 ($5.06 GAAP, $9.9B net income), revenue $67.8B (+36% y/y); best downstream quarter in at least six years; shares +1% premarket. Energy sector (XLE, XOM, CVX peers) — validates the integrated-major thesis that the oil shock cuts both ways: crude volatility pressures upstream while supercharging refining spreads. Downstream/consumer-facing names face the mirror image via elevated fuel costs.
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