HSBC analyst Joe Thomas upgraded Target (TGT) to Buy from Hold and raised his price target to $190 from $125, a 52% hike reflecting growing conviction in the turnaround. Target shares climbed roughly 2% Wednesday to around $157, building on a ~63% year-to-date run. Thomas cited the fiscal Q2 report, strong guidance, and foot-traffic-driven growth: comparable sales rose 3.8% on traffic, not price hikes, which he said shows Target is 'rebuilding customer traffic' without store-base cannibalization.
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New filings show Dell director and Silver Lake co-CEO Egon Durban, alongside affiliated Silver Lake entities, sold more than $45M of Dell Class C common stock in early-to-mid September, on top of the Sep 21 Silver Lake IV sale (~$4.55M) disclosed Monday. Silver Lake Partners IV converted 76,049 Class B shares into Class C, then sold 56,128 shares totaling ~$30.38M on Sep 8; Silver Lake Partners V DE (AIV) sold 27,629 shares for ~$14.93M on Sep 9. Separately, a Form 144 was filed signaling additional sales ahead, and directors sold smaller blocks (Durban: 1,850 shares ~$1.01M on Sep 23; Radakovich: 2,022 shares ~$1.14M on Sep 22 under a 10b5-1 plan). The cluster of insider liquidity-taking follows Dell's AI-driven run to new highs, with the stock near ~$544.
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DELL — heavy insider selling by its largest shareholder (Silver Lake) and a director signals supply overhang; broader AI-server names (SMCI, HPE) can catch sympathy concern when Dell insiders sell into strength
Hewlett Packard Enterprise announced at its networking investor day on Wednesday that cloud firm Vultr placed a $1.2 billion order for AMD Helios AI racks to deploy in Vultr's U.S. data centers — HPE's first order for the new AMD Helios system. Each rack holds 72 AMD Instinct MI455X GPUs alongside AMD EPYC 'Venice' CPUs and Pensando Vulcano network cards, connected by six HPE Juniper Networking QFX5252 switch trays for rack-scale Ethernet. Separately, HPE raised its long-term networking revenue outlook to a high-teens CAGR for fiscal 2026-2029 (from 5-7% for FY25-28), lifted its fiscal 2027 networking growth forecast to high-teens/low-20s (from 14-17%), and raised its Juniper acquisition cost-savings target to $800M annual run-rate by end of FY28 (from $600M). HPE shares rose nearly 6% in premarket trading.
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Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): primary beneficiary — $1.2B order plus raised guidance; shares rose ~6% premarket and held +4-6% intraday
AMD: major validation — first commercial order for the Helios rack platform (Instinct MI455X GPUs, EPYC Venice CPUs), strengthening its rack-scale alternative to Nvidia NVL systems
Dell (DELL), Super Micro (SMCI): competitive pressure — a rival AI-server vendor winning a marquee order in the AI rack market
Networking peers (Arista ANET, Cisco CSCO): HPE Juniper's sharpened high-teens growth target intensifies competition in AI networking
Broadcom AVGO / Marvell MRVL: read-through — scale-up Ethernet networking gaining share in AI racks
The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said Wednesday it received a report that a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile — adding to four vessels hit since Monday (including three tankers struck on September 29 per TradeWinds) as Iran resumed ship attacks. Oil rebounded on the news: December Brent rose ~1.7-2.3% to ~$103.50 a barrel and front-month WTI climbed ~1.8% to ~$90.99, reversing Tuesday's ~4% dive to ~$89.38 (WTI's lowest September settlement). Brent remains on track for a ~16% monthly gain. The same WSJ oil roundup noted Netanyahu held an emergency security meeting over the FlyDubai cockpit incident, and that Trump's denial of Russia-sanctions-relief reports had helped crude regain strength.
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Broad market: oil back above $90 WTI complicates the cooling-inflation story even after the soft PCE print; 30-year yields at 24-year highs amplify the stagflation-flavored mix
Gold: recovered above $4,200/oz as a geopolitical hedge bid
The ADP National Employment Report showed private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, up from a downwardly revised 36,000 in August (previously reported 38,000) and above the ~70,000 consensus (WSJ's survey said 68,000). ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said job creation rebounded 'after a three-month slowdown' and pay growth remained solid: base pay rose 3.2% YoY and gross pay 4.7%. Education and health services led with +55,000 jobs and leisure/hospitality added 22,000; goods-producing added 31,000 (manufacturing +17,000, construction +15,000). The weak spots were financial activities (-16,000) and professional/business services (-11,000). The report precedes Friday's BLS employment report (8:30 a.m. ET).
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Broad market: a stronger hiring print complicates the post-PCE case for an October Fed pause, nudging rate-hike odds back up; rate-sensitive growth/equities exposed
Treasury yields: 2-year-sensitive; a hot print could reverse the 5bp post-PCE drop in the 2-year to 4.84%
Financials and AI-exposed services: the two weak sectors — financial activities (-16,000) and professional/business services (-11,000) — are seen as ripe for AI-driven job disruption
The SEC's Division of Corporation Finance issued a no-action letter Tuesday (Sep 29) clearing Tesla's proposed 'Issuer Voluntary Retail Voting Program' (IVRVP) the same day it was submitted, following what Tesla's letter says were 'months-long' discussions with SEC staff. Under the voluntary program, retail shareholders opt in once — free, through Tesla, a broker, or a shared 'hub' — and from then on their shares are automatically voted in line with the Tesla board's recommendations. Participants choose one of two scopes: follow the board on every matter, or every matter except contested director elections and mergers/acquisitions/divestitures requiring a shareholder vote. Enrollees still receive full proxy materials, can override any single proposal, can cancel at any time, and get yearly reminders; votes are cast as soon as Tesla files its definitive proxy, before shareholders receive the proxy statement.
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Tesla (TSLA): governance tailwind for board/Musk-backed proposals — including a possible SpaceX merger vote — since opted-in retail shares default to the board's recommendation; TSLA fell 1.29% Tuesday but edged higher after hours on the news
Robinhood (HOOD): CEO Vlad Tenev publicly celebrated the approval and Tesla described broker-run 'Hubs' where investors can enroll in every participating company's program
ExxonMobil (XOM): precedent company that already operates the program (100k+ enrolled)
Goldman Sachs (GS): received its own no-action letter the same day
FlyDubai flight FZ1073, a Boeing 737 MAX 8 (registration A6-FKF) carrying 174 passengers from Dubai to Tel Aviv, departed Dubai at 7:05 AM UAE time Wednesday and — about two hours in, near the Saudi-Jordan border — broadcast squawk 7700 (general emergency) followed by squawk 7500 (unlawful interference/hijacking), per flight-tracking data. The jet plunged from ~34,000 feet to ~17,000 feet in under a minute and diverted to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Airport in Tabuk, northwestern Saudi Arabia, landing safely. According to Israeli officials, media reports, and passenger accounts, the co-pilot — reportedly an Omani national who had worked for the airline about a year — stabbed the captain in the cockpit and attempted to take control; passengers and off-duty pilots aboard helped subdue him and land the plane. Israel scrambled fighter jets and convened senior security officials as a precaution; Netanyahu's office said the situation is under control.
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Airlines / travel & leisure: negative — aviation-security shock typically hits carriers and booking sentiment; Middle East routes most exposed
Oil & energy: upward risk — S&P 500 futures hit session lows Wednesday as Brent rose ~1.4% partly on the incident (per MarketWatch); adds to the existing Iran-war risk premium
Defense: modest positive — renewed threat perception, though no contract action
Boeing (BA): headline risk by association (737 MAX 8 airframe), though the incident was a pilot fight, not a technical failure; BA had been up 2.5% premarket on the F/A-XX win
Broader equities: mixed-to-negative intraday via oil and safe-haven bid (gold back above $4,200/oz, dollar firm)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released August PCE data Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET alongside the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Headline PCE inflation came in at 3.4% year over year, below the 3.7% consensus and down from July (revised to 3.4%), with a 0.3% monthly gain in line with expectations. Core PCE (ex-food/energy), the Fed's preferred gauge, rose 3.0% YoY, also cooler than expected, with a 0.2% monthly rise. Personal income rose 0.4% and spending 0.6%. Separately, the third estimate of Q2 GDP was revised up sharply to 2.2% from the 1.5% second estimate, driven by stronger consumer spending.
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At its annual HOOD Summit in Houston on Tuesday, Robinhood announced a major product expansion: Robinhood Agents, an in-app AI tool built on models from OpenAI and Anthropic that can research markets, build strategies, and place trades on a customer's behalf around the clock, with users able to name the agent, open a separate account, and set operating limits (OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol free through year-end). It will also launch 24/7 weekend trading for a curated list of U.S. stocks and ETFs via the Bruce ATS alternative trading system — the first time weekend equity trading is offered on the platform — plus earnings-outcome contracts via a Cboe partnership (letting retail traders bet on whether a company beats estimates or hits revenue targets) through its prediction-markets hub. It also added crypto perpetual futures with up to 10x leverage on bitcoin and ether through Bitstamp, at a 0.01% fee through year-end.
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On Tuesday, September 29, the Department of War announced that the U.S. Navy selected Boeing to develop the F/A-XX, a sixth-generation carrier-based strike fighter, beating rival Northrop Grumman. The contract is valued at more than $20 billion for the full-scale development phase and covers multiple test aircraft for ground, airworthiness, systems, and weapons-integration testing. This is Boeing's second sixth-generation fighter program, following its 2025 win of the Air Force's F-47. Boeing shares rose about 2.3% in extended trading Tuesday; Northrop Grumman fell about 3.5-4.1%.
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Boeing (BA): direct winner — adds $20B+ development contract to defense backlog and secures St. Louis fighter work into the 2030s
Northrop Grumman (NOC): direct loser — shares fell ~3.5-4.1% after hours after losing one of the Pentagon's largest competitions
Lockheed Martin (LMT): indirect — now iced out of the sixth-gen fighter market by Boeing's dual wins; the broader aerospace & defense sector is a read-through as NGAD production could eventually run into the hundreds of billions
The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday evening that Wall Street's expected blockbuster fall IPO season is unraveling. Smart-ring maker Oura was the latest to postpone, delaying its offering citing "uncertainty in the IPO market" — it had aimed to raise as much as $2.2 billion at a ~$15.6 billion valuation, but investors balked, questioning the valuation and whether revenue growth would suffer as consumers feel the pinch of higher prices and interest rates. SoftBank-backed data-center company SB Energy delayed its IPO date after valuation pushback; Nvidia-backed cloud startup NScale's expected roadshow launch as early as next week may slip; nuclear-reactor company Holtec withdrew its IPO filing earlier this month citing unfavorable market conditions; and Dunkin' owner Inspire Brands is now unlikely to go public this year unless restaurant rival shares trade better. The fall parade was expected to be headlined by a gigantic, record-setting Anthropic offering, now also in doubt.
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OpenAI unveiled more than 20 products at its DevDay 2026 conference on September 29, headlined by 'Dots' — GPT-6 Astra-powered always-on AI agents, each with its own cloud computer, extensible with over 4,000 plugins, accessible via ChatGPT, Slack, and Microsoft Teams. It launched GPT-6.1 Sol, which delivers near-Astra performance on agentic coding and computer use at one-fifth the token price; Codex in the cloud; the Agents API in public beta with computer use; plugin extensions; ChatGPT Spaces; a new $500/month Pro 500 tier with an 'Ultrafast' speed tier; and Amazon Bedrock Managed Agents, which runs OpenAI-powered agents inside AWS. OpenAI also disclosed ChatGPT has reached 1.2 billion weekly users, while its next frontier model (GPT-6.1 Astra) remains on hold over safety concerns.
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AMZN (Amazon Bedrock Managed Agents now runs OpenAI-powered agents inside AWS — a direct OpenAI/AWS partnership), MSFT (Dots agents integrate with Microsoft Teams; deepens the OpenAI-Microsoft ecosystem), META (Dots framed as a Meta Muse competitor — adds pressure after today's BofA note on Muse threatening Apple's services revenue), and the broader AI software/infrastructure complex (cheaper frontier-class inference via GPT-6.1 Sol at 1/5 the token price pressures model-pricing power).
West Texas Intermediate crude futures dived nearly 4% on Tuesday to settle around $89.38 a barrel, the lowest settlement of September, according to Investor's Business Daily's post-close market wrap. The selloff was driven by concrete signs of improving Gulf supply: Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West oil pipeline (first flows since the September 10 drone attacks) and resumed Red Sea oil exports, while tanker movement was seen on the Strait of Hormuz. WSJ reported that Gulf exports reached 80% of prewar levels in September (Kpler), with Brent falling about 1.9% to ~$103.24 and WTI down about 2% in European trading before extending losses into the U.S. settle.
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Energy sector (XLE) — fell with crude; majors like Exxon/Chevron had been outperforming on elevated prices, so the sharp pullback reverses that tailwind
Refiners/transportation/consumers — lower fuel costs ease input costs and support margins; retail gasoline has been running ~$4.46-$4.48/gal per AAA
Broad market / rates — falling oil eases the inflation pressure that has been pushing the Fed toward more hikes (10-yr at 19-yr highs); a meaningful disinflationary impulse if it holds
In a September 29 analyst note, Susquehanna reiterated its Positive rating on Dell Technologies (DELL) and maintained its $700 price target, implying roughly 28% upside from the stock's then-current level around $543. Analyst Mehdi Hosseini pointed to growing demand for AI inferencing as the key catalyst for Dell's server business, expecting traditional server revenue to double in fiscal 2027 and then grow at a double-digit compound annual growth rate through fiscal 2029. Hosseini argued that enterprise customers and neocloud service providers are increasing spending on computing infrastructure for AI inferencing applications, a trend that should drive growth across Dell's server segment and support upside to fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2029 estimates.
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New York Fed President John Williams said in an afternoon speech that there is "no need for urgency" in continuing rate hikes and that the Fed should take time to review more data, directly pushing back on the ~70% market odds of an October 28 hike. Per the CME FedWatch tool, October hike odds collapsed from 70.9% to 51.5%, and odds of a half-point of hikes through year-end fell to 42.7% from 58.7%. Stocks perked up off their lows on the remarks: the Dow closed down 131 points (-0.3%) at 51,349.92, the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to 7,670.84, and the Nasdaq shed 0.09% to 26,797.54. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 0.035 point to 4.887%, while the 10-year still closed at 5.256%, a 19-year high, and the 30-year at 5.594%, a 24-year high.
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New York Fed President John Williams said in afternoon remarks that the central bank need not rush to continue raising interest rates, the first notable dovish counterpoint from a top Fed official after Governor Lisa Cook's hawkish signal this morning. Stocks perked up on the remarks and the 2-year Treasury yield fell in afternoon trading, though equities remained lower on the day. Meanwhile the bond selloff ground on: the 10-year Treasury ticked higher toward yet another 19-year high and the 30-year yield rose to 5.612%, its highest level since 2002.
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BofA Securities said Apple faces competitive risks — and potential loss of service revenue — because of Meta's Muse, Meta's enterprise AI assistant. Apple fell 2.1% on Tuesday while Meta rose 2.1%, making the pair one of the day's clearest cross-currents: a Mag 7 winner (Apple, +20%+ YTD) pressured by a competitive AI threat, and a Mag 7 laggard (Meta) getting credit for its enterprise AI push.
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Bloom Energy gained 11% on Tuesday, ranking among the top performers in the S&P 500, after the city of Fremont, California — home to Bloom's current manufacturing site — said the company purchased a 158,000-square-foot facility to expand operations. Morgan Stanley said the expansion is an indication of 'strong continued demand' for Bloom's fuel-cell systems.
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The Conference Board's consumer confidence index plunged 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, far below the 89.2 consensus forecast and down from 88.6 in August. Bloomberg called it the lowest reading for the index in more than a decade. Both sub-components sank: the Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3, and the Expectations Index slid 5.9 points to 63.6, its third straight monthly decline. In the same 10:00 AM ET release, the BLS August JOLTS report showed job openings at 7.079 million, below the 7.225 million consensus and down from July's upwardly revised 7.335 million. Quits held at 3.1 million (1.9% rate) and layoffs stayed low at 1.6 million (1.0% rate), suggesting a labor market that is cooling but holding together. Separately, 68.4% of consumers now expect interest rates to rise and 12-month inflation expectations sit at 6.1%.
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Broad market (SPY/DIA/QQQ): Dow fell more than 300 points (-0.6%), S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.1% on the session as yields re-priced the data
Consumer discretionary and staples: sectors paced the laggards (Apple and Walmart among the worst Dow decliners, -2% to -3%) as weak confidence flags holiday-season spending risk
Rate-sensitive equities / bonds: 10-year yield popped ~4bp to 5.28% intraday; weaker labor data could eventually temper October hike odds, a tension for TLT
Carnival Corporation (CCL) reported fiscal Q3 2026 results for the quarter ended August 31: net income of $1.92 billion ($1.40/share), up from $1.85 billion ($1.33) a year earlier; adjusted EPS of $1.43 vs. the $1.35 consensus (+5.9%); and record revenue of $8.44 billion (+3.5% YoY) vs. $8.35-8.39 billion estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.99 billion vs. $2.93 billion expected. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.24 (from $2.22) and reported record customer deposits of $7.6 billion (+7%), with booked occupancy and pricing for 2027 at record levels. CEO Josh Weinstein said booking trends strengthened throughout the quarter with volumes 'meaningfully ahead of last year and far outpacing capacity growth.' Shares gapped up roughly 10-13% (to about $24.34-$24.96), on track for the largest single-day gain since April; Royal Caribbean rose 5.7% and Norwegian Cruise Line 4.1% in sympathy.
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Carnival (CCL): +10-13%, largest single-day gain since April; S&P 500 constituent read on U.S. leisure demand
Royal Caribbean (RCL) +5.7%, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) +4.1%: sympathy rally across the cruise complex
Consumer discretionary/travel-leisure broadly: a counterpoint to the day's weak consumer-confidence print — the high-end consumer is still spending on big-ticket leisure at 5%-plus rates
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar raised Dell Technologies' price target to $550 from $500 while maintaining a 'Hold' rating, following a meeting with Dell's head of investor relations (reported via TheFly, Sep 29, 9:38 AM EDT). The firm said Dell's second-half AI server orders will be an important signal for how much upside remains in 2027 AI forecasts, pointed to Dell's record $95 billion AI server backlog as heavily leveraged to major neocloud customers, and sees a richer mix of AI CPU racks as positive for margins. TD Cowen also warned that memory constraints remain a risk for Dell in 2027.
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DELL (direct: analyst PT raise on the watchlist name; also reinforces the AI-infrastructure/memory-tightness narrative that touches Micron/MU, Sandisk, Intel, Marvell and memory-adjacent names in SOXX)
Late Monday, FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will scrap their two separate pricing matrices and move to a single unified mortgage pricing grid — with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid for the first time. 'Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid,' Pulte wrote on X, adding that the prior two-grid structure made 'zero sense.' VantageScore is a joint venture of the three credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, TransUnion). Hours later, Rocket Mortgage announced it will become the first home lender to use VantageScore 4.0 as its preferred scoring model on all eligible loans, after four months of testing showed it helped more clients qualify while reducing credit-scoring costs. TransUnion separately locked in standalone VantageScore 4.0 mortgage pricing at $0.99 per score through December 2028. Fair Isaac shares plunged ~20% in premarket trading Tuesday and were the worst performer in the S&P 500 — the worst daily decline in more than six years.
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Fair Isaac (FICO): -20% Tuesday to ~$669.78, worst daily drop in 6+ years, worst S&P 500 performer, lowest close since March 2023; direct threat to core mortgage-scoring revenue and pricing power
Equifax (EFX): -2.8% premarket; co-owner of VantageScore but FICO-score revenue at risk and investor sentiment toward credit-scoring names sour
TransUnion (TRU) / Experian: VantageScore JV owners — TransUnion amplified the story by locking $0.99 VantageScore pricing through 2028, positioning to capture defecting lender volume
Rocket Companies (RKT): first major lender to adopt VantageScore 4.0 as preferred model; could cut its credit-score costs materially
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac: implementers of the unified grid; mortgage origination market benefits from simplified pricing
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded Netflix to Buy from Hold on Tuesday, arguing the 26% year-to-date selloff now offers an attractive entry point. Kraft lowered his price target to $95 from $100, but the target still implies roughly 37% upside from recent levels. He contends the market's 'obsession' with weak U.S. viewing time overlooks Netflix's larger total addressable market and healthier international trends: international engagement has grown year over year in each of the past four six-month periods, over 60% of production now happens outside the U.S., and Netflix holds an 'established competitive advantage and substantial lead' in international production. At about 18 times his 2027 earnings estimate — down from ~40x forward earnings at the June 2025 peak — Kraft believes the growth outlook is being undervalued, with room to re-rate into the low-to-mid 20s multiple; he expects 23% EPS growth in 2027. Shares rose ~1.5% to $70.27 Tuesday after ending Monday down 2.7%.
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Netflix (NFLX): +1.5% Tuesday to ~$70.27 after -2.7% Monday; upgrade lands as shares sit near July post-earnings lows, reopening the bull/bear debate on engagement
CarMax reported fiscal Q2 2027 results (quarter ended August 31) on Tuesday morning, delivering a major beat: net earnings per diluted share of $1.16, up 81% from $0.64 a year ago and well above the $0.73 Wall Street consensus. Total net revenue rose 19.5% to $7.9 billion, beating the $7.09 billion consensus. Combined retail and wholesale unit sales rose 14.7% to 387,735 units, with retail used units up 13.8% and comparable-store used units up 13.0%. Gross profit per used retail unit was $2,105 ($111 below last year but ahead of the $2,022 Street expectation), reflecting deliberate pricing actions to drive sales. CarMax Auto Finance income jumped 32.1% to $135.6 million. Management announced it will resume share repurchases at a modest level in Q3 FY27 — it bought back no shares in Q2 — citing improved performance, business momentum, and better leverage. The company will also host a virtual Strategic Update on November 3. Shares rose 6.2% Tuesday.
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CarMax (KMX): +6.2% Tuesday; earnings beat plus buyback resumption and November 3 strategic update
Carvana (CVNA), AutoNation (AN), Group 1 Automotive (GPI): sector read-through — CarMax's strong unit volumes and digital execution set the tone for used-auto retail peers
AstraZeneca will invest $2 billion in Summit Therapeutics, announced late Monday September 28, and the two companies will collaborate on a series of clinical trials combining Summit's bispecific antibody ivonescimab with AstraZeneca's cancer treatments. AstraZeneca will buy newly issued preferred shares at an equivalent price of $18.36 per common share — an 18.6% premium to Summit's Monday close of $15.48 — giving it roughly a 12% stake (10.6% fully diluted), with closing expected within about a week. The first trials will pair ivonescimab with AstraZeneca's Claudin-18.2-targeting antibody-drug conjugate sonesitatug vedotin (Sone-Ve) in gastrointestinal cancers, each company retaining rights to its own molecule and sharing trial costs; a non-binding MOU points to a broader program combining ivonescimab with AstraZeneca's wider ADC portfolio.
Why it matters
The bigger picture behind this move, what it means for the company and the sector, and how it fits the trend we have been tracking for weeks.
What’s next
The dates, numbers and signals to watch from here, and what would change the story.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
