Trump says no Iran attack before Nov 3 midterms; crude pares spike, 10-year yield falls back to 5.23%
What happened
President Trump said Thursday he will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, reflecting the same Atlantic reporting that had driven the escalation bid — a direct de-escalation signal after late Wednesday's 'not interested in an Iran deal' comment and the reported Pentagon strike-option planning. Crude came off its intraday highs: WTI settled around $91.49 (up 3.6% on the day but well off the $93.20 peak) and Brent around $104.28. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5-6 basis points to 5.23% after touching 5.35-5.37% earlier in the week — helped by cooling oil, strong demand at Thursday's 30-year auction, and the risk-off bid from the AI selloff. The Dow managed a 0.1% gain while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on the separate OpenAI news.
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- Energy (XLE popped ~3% Thursday but gave back part of the spike): producers, refiners and tanker/shipping names saw the intraday premium compress as strike risk before midterms was taken off the table. Defense names exposed to a near-term Iran strike lost some of the conflict bid. Bond market / rate-sensitive growth: the 10-year falling back to 5.23% from the 5.35-5.37% 24-year highs eased the pressure that had hammered the Nasdaq; the broader market stabilized — Dow +0.1%, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -1.25% (dragged by the separate OpenAI-revenue AI selloff). Airlines and refiners get relief from the lower crude print.