Heads-up: FOMC Minutes from the Sep 15-16 meeting drop Wednesday Oct 7, 2:00 PM ET — watch who flinched; backward-looking but markets will read it against October 27-28 hike bets
What happened
FOMC Minutes from the September 15-16 meeting are released Wednesday, Oct 7 at 2:00 PM ET. Context: the September meeting delivered the first hike in three years — 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, unanimous. Since then the landscape flipped: Friday's jobs report was a big miss (+29K payrolls vs ~90K expected, unemployment up to 4.2%, prior months revised down), which collapsed October-hike odds that were ~70% a week earlier. But the bond selloff has not quit — the 10-year touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002, before settling ~5.25%. What matters: the minutes are where you find out who flinched. The statement already said inflation is too high and the vote was unanimous, so the debate lives in the details — did anyone want 50bp, and was the labor scare already in the room? One mechanic: the minutes describe Sep 15-16, before Friday's weak jobs print — so they are backward-looking. What moves markets is whether the committee's framing reads consistent with pausing now that the data has turned. How to read it: hawkish minutes (inflation focus, comfort with more hikes) re-light October 27-28 hike bets and extend the bond selloff; dovish minutes (patience language, labor concern) cement the dovish turn and extend the rate-sensitive relief. Timing wrinkle: the $39B 10-year auction prices at 1:00 PM, so yields may already be moving when the minutes land at 2:00. First Fed voice after the jobs miss: Williams and Bowman spoke Tuesday. And next Wednesday, Oct 14, is September CPI (8:30 AM ET) — the critical print that decides whether October stays on hold.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- Broad market (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100); rate-sensitive sectors
- Treasury yields and USD; banks on the curve read.